Does Rst Last? the Existence and Extent of Rst Mover Advantages on Spatial Networks

is paper examines the nature of rst-mover advantages in the deployment of spatially differentiated surface transport networks. A number of factors explaining the existence of rst-mover advantages have been identi ed in the literature; however, the questions of whether these factors exist in spatial networks, and of how they play out with true capital immobility have remained unanswered. By examining empirical examples of commuter rail and the Underground in London, rst-mover advantage is observed and its sources explored. A model of network diffusion is then constructed to replicate the growth of surface transport networks, making it possible to analyze rst-mover advantage in a controlled environment. Simulation experiments are conducted, and Spearman rank correlation tests reveal that rst-mover advantages can exist in a surface transport network and can become increasingly prominent as the network expands. In addition, the analysis discloses that the extent of rst-mover advantages may relate to the initial land use distribution and network redundancy. e sensitivity of simulation results to model parameters are also examined.